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Business Indices Questions - Restrictions have become Necessary
Hello all
I know that some of you are going to be disappointed with this post, but we've come to the very difficult conclusion that we are going to have to restrict further the number of indices allowed within the Business Category.
This is because of the following:
1. In some of the less popular indices, it is far too easy to make huge amounts of profit.
2. Hubdub's users are predominantly from the US, and being in that timezone are unable to follow most of the markets in Europe and Asia. When we begin gaining more users from around the globe, this would change.
3. And finally, Andrew, our Business Category Editor, is leaving for a better paid job (not hard to find!) next month and frankly, having to settle markets in the rapid way expected for the indices questions is proving difficult. If the number of indices is restricted, the manageability of the category becomes easier. Obviously when Super User settlement is in place, this would also change.
So, with this in mind, we've decided we need to temporarily restrict the questions allowed to those concerning only the Dow and the Nasdaq. No questions would be permitted on any other index until further notice.
I'm guessing you're all going to have something to say about this decision, but if you can come up with a better solution to the problems as outlined above, I'd love to hear it.
Many thanks
Lesley.
I know that some of you are going to be disappointed with this post, but we've come to the very difficult conclusion that we are going to have to restrict further the number of indices allowed within the Business Category.
This is because of the following:
1. In some of the less popular indices, it is far too easy to make huge amounts of profit.
2. Hubdub's users are predominantly from the US, and being in that timezone are unable to follow most of the markets in Europe and Asia. When we begin gaining more users from around the globe, this would change.
3. And finally, Andrew, our Business Category Editor, is leaving for a better paid job (not hard to find!) next month and frankly, having to settle markets in the rapid way expected for the indices questions is proving difficult. If the number of indices is restricted, the manageability of the category becomes easier. Obviously when Super User settlement is in place, this would also change.
So, with this in mind, we've decided we need to temporarily restrict the questions allowed to those concerning only the Dow and the Nasdaq. No questions would be permitted on any other index until further notice.
I'm guessing you're all going to have something to say about this decision, but if you can come up with a better solution to the problems as outlined above, I'd love to hear it.
Many thanks
Lesley.
I’m sad because I don't like restrictions
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Inappropriate?p.s. existing questions on other indices would be settled, only new ones would be voided.
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Inappropriate?Here is my thought. If the markets are tracked by CNBC or FOX business channel so anyone can see the movements, and If the suspend time is set before the market closes (preferably 15-30 minutes), and users know that these questions will take up to 24 hours to settle, then we should allow them. I hate to see us restricting legitimate questions.
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Inappropriate?i almost agree with destry. i think the suspend time should be 1 hour before a stock market opens (what will the dow open at) and at least 2 hours (proablly should be 4) before a stock market closes (will the dow close up). as of 5-23-08 they have the suspend times between 1-5 minutes. how hard is it to predict the dow will close up when the suspend time is 5 minutes before the dow closes? if the dow is down 150 points and suspend time is 15-30 minutes before the dow closes pretty much a no brainer. i'm gonna catch heck from people, but so be it. betting on a stock market with the suspend time 1-5 minutes of closing-opening is gaming if ya ask me.1 Comment
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legitimation of in-game betting is this: you say "how hard is it to predict whether the market closes up or down only five minutes before closure?". Sure, that's not very hard (normally) - but your gain will be minimal. Your gains will be much greater when you predict the correct outcome far before it is that sure to all. Your "long term" prediction will be honored that way. -
Inappropriate?I created the following question in response to news that Pakistan's KSE100 market was falling fast (4.5 percent in one day) after interest rates were raised: http://www.hubdub.com/m7899/Where_wil.... When creating the market, it seemed like the easiest way was to tie it into the country's stock market (especially for those of us who do not live in Pakistan). However, since the KSE100 is not the DOW or NASDAQ, the market was voided. Does anyone have any comments or ideas on how to make a "valid" market for this topic?
I’m confused
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Inappropriate?Time for someone to discover the next cash cow. This one has been milked dry. Glad I got a couple of gallons near the end. -
Inappropriate?1. I thought that rule changes at HubDub would have a discussion here with users and staff before being implemented. I thought that was policy.
2. This should be posted in the announcements. I only discovered this rule because I happened to look at the comments for the ASX question which mork suspended, and where jenniandboys linked to this discussion.
3. I agree with destry's idea above. Restrictions (perhaps temporary) are understandable, but outright banning seems arbitrary and unfair (especially to non-Americas players). I'd say an hour or even two before close though. This will in some cases make the people wagering over ten thousand on the question take some actual risk, and should remoove the cash-cowness that epicur refers to.
I’m thirsty for more milk.
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Damn now I need to go to store for cookies.
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Inappropriate?I don't think it was ever decided that Hubdub couldn't make changes at their discretion without notifying the community. I believe that with some creative reasoning we can find a way to include these markets and yet keep it fair for everyone. When we have clear cut markets such as in sports with winning and losing, or markets and what their final closing number is, those should be thrown into a place where all admins could settle. As long as the question creates a clear settlement source, is easy to follow in realtime (or close to it), then I say we should find a way to allow them.
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Inappropriate?There was beginning to be so many Asian/European market questions that it was getting hard to keep track of them all. I realize that those questions were being asked because there were less users on hubdub at the times these markets are open, thus huge profits for a small group of people.
Another issue is that all of these questions asked for simple open up/down, close up/down. After checking these markets out for couple weeks it became apparent that with the Premarket action from previous close, it was usually decided what the outcome was going to be majority of time as the market opened.
And finally- The biggest problem in my opinion is that Yahoo, MSN, CNN, and other popular market tracking sites all post a delayed quote (not sure exactly how much, but seems like 20-30 mins at least) for the Asian/European markets. I have had a hard time finding site that posts live quotes/charts for all of the Asian/European market questions. Am I the only one with this problem? If I am overlooking an obvious website to use on these questions please let me know.
I really dont mind one way or another if these types of questions will be allowed in future, I just wanted to add personnal opinion to conversation.
I hope we here more of them.2 Comments Add a comment
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You can get near-real-time quotes from the Nikkei, the Hong Kong exchange and the BSE (needs Java). Google them. They're easy to find.
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Thanks infernalmachine. I usually am a Yahoo, CNN person for finance info but after taking your advice I did find sites with closer up to the minute quotes.
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Inappropriate?Guys, I totally appreciate all your input, and we've discussed this amongst the team again, but have come to the conclusion that a TEMPORARY ban is necessary.
I can't right now give you a timescale unfortunately, but as soon as we feel we're in a position to open them up again, (and by making them non-in-running, that will hopefully be sooner rather than later) we will do it.
I hope you can all understand that we're trying to make the game as fair as possible for all involved.
Thanks for your understanding.
Lesley. -
Inappropriate?Lesley: I totally support your decision. Some of the business stuff was just getting crazy. There have been more than a few times I have read the questions and the first thing that popped into my mind was "someone's got to be gaming this one." Some things are just too obscure to pursue even for worldy Hubdub members.3 Comments Add a comment
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I appreciate your support Markov.
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I was in same boat as you Markov. I tried to get involved but there was so many World Market questions being asked that it became ridiculous (in my opinion) . I wouldnt necessarily consider it gaming the system, but the ones who created/played these questions knew that far less users on hubdub at the time these markets are active so they could get their 10K bets in without much competition. Another thing is that numerous questions used the yahoo finance link for ther World Market questions, knowing that Yahoo showed quotes at least 20 minutes delayed. Sure, we can find our own sites for live quotes, but dont try to throw people off by giving a much delayed market quote. None of this is necessarily gaming, rather possibly smart people knowing the system and how to profit off it.
I am glad hubdub is taking time to discuss this topic to make things as fair as possible for all above.
Any decision made either way if fine with me, I am just adding to the conversation. -
ontilt - Excellent point! A lot of people in the biz have real time quoting access and the rest of us are stuck with time delays. I could see how this could be a major problem.
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Inappropriate?Maybe we should publish a link to (near) real time index quote sites along with the question in general. Done by the cat-ed?1 Comment Add a comment
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I agree. There should have been a real time quote instead of one they most probably knew was a much delayed quote thus gaining advantage for themselves and throwing others off purposely.
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Inappropriate?I like the idea of providing a link for all market questions. I also feel that it would be extremely helpful if they were covered by bloomberg, fox business or CNBC, so people could get frequent updates.
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Inappropriate?Why are indices restricted while sports-questions are not?
I'm wondering whether specific questions about matches in a college league are newsworthy, as long as there are no questions about the professional league matches.
I appreciate everyone making questions.
But teach me wrong: Aren't they as problematic (in terms of being kind of exotic) like European indices?
I’m aware it might be seen with other eyes in the US
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That would be fine, but the major difference is that all the non major sporting questions suspend prior to match, meaning it gives no huge advantage to one person over another. The world market questions(and mass amounts) were simply being asked for one reason, they knew not many people followed them, combined with the fact very few hubdub members were competition during times these markets active thus huge profits for them. They could sit and watch as outcome was almost certainly decided with little competition following the question/market.
And with regard to college league questions, the only ones I have seen have been involving the college world series, which is a major event with all suspend times prior to match meaning no real advantage to one user over another.
Just an observation/opinion.
Any and all feedback welcome. -
Inappropriate?I think what you are experiencing is the skewing of questions based on the demographics of the users. Plus the big point is that those markets have a set time they begin and questions are suspended upon the beginning of the match. So that makes not being able to follow in real time a non factor. Would it be possible to ask questions about european markets and have them suspend before trading begins, maybe that is an alternative. Plus we need to understand that with less admins to settle these markets it could take up to 24 hours to settle.1 Comment Add a comment
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Agree 100%
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Inappropriate?kruijs - Great idea on publishing index link on question page. I would also add a rule that index questions suspend 24 hours before index closing. You are also correct about the exotic league sports questions. I believe the first major Hubdub sanction against a member was for gaming on exotic sports leagues. I would, at least for now, confine sports betting to major North American and European professional and national leagues since they are most widely reported and probably 99% of Hubdub users reside on these two continents. Anything outside of that probably doesn't rise to the level of even minority interest and is ripe for gaming.
destry - Your comments on suspend times are right on the mark and have a history of creating problems on the site. I have seen much abuse of suspend times occurring during, or even after, game play or index reporting in the past, though the problem seems to be waning. I would imagine it is a huge job for admins to try to check the timing on each and every question with a faulty suspend time. I have a suggestion for the admins that might reduce that workload:
1) track the reasons why questions are voided into a few simple categories (i.e. bad suspend time, poor wording, advertising, etc.)
2) sanction members who chronically set bad suspend times
No need to give people crap about poor wording as I doubt people do that on purpose. A couple suspend time problems are likely a mistake as well. However, if someone is constantly screwing up the suspend times there might be a reason. -
Inappropriate?I am hoping we see in the phase 2 rollout of the super user functions a situation in which all questions are in a suspend status until they can be reviewed. I hope that would help stop some of these problems from occurring. I also think we should spend more time working with new users on creating good markets.
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Inappropriate?We are all having this conversation trying to be fair, and at same time inclusive, not exclusive. Maybe a comprise is right solution allowing questions pertaining to the top three world markets (not really sure, maybe Dow/Nikkei 225/FTSE 100) which icludes top one from US, Europe, Asia.
Just another idea that came to mind.
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