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How to fix HubDub.
Two ideas to improve Hubdub a great deal.
1) For settlement the creator of the question must consult with HubDub before settlement. If the creator does not respond within 2 days then HubDub decideds.
2) ALL question from here on out start at 50% for every kind of answer (yes/no, or a list). If this is a predictions market the least likely will fall and the most likely will rise. This will stop the gaming of the system.
1) For settlement the creator of the question must consult with HubDub before settlement. If the creator does not respond within 2 days then HubDub decideds.
2) ALL question from here on out start at 50% for every kind of answer (yes/no, or a list). If this is a predictions market the least likely will fall and the most likely will rise. This will stop the gaming of the system.
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Inappropriate?Scottay -- if I were to create a "yes/no" question today: "Will John McCain choose Rudy Guiliani as his VP running mate?" -- and started that with initial likelihood odds of 50-50% -- that would be a gaming question, as the likelihood of that happening are significantly less than 50%.
And, when McCain officially selects his running mate, why would I need to consult with Hubdub before a decision is made? It either is Rudy Guiliani or it's not -- and that news will be on every front page in the US, and on many around the world.
Are you referring to the overall problems of setting accurate likelihood percentages on multiple outcome questions, gaming and contested settlements?
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Inappropriate?As to your first question, the person who makes the question cannot bet for 12 hours. Also since there is nothing bet yet on the question a very small bet will move the odds to where they should be very fast.
As to your second point I understant that questions seem obvious but it's been proven over and over they are not. Your example is PERFECT. There is a question now about who McCain will pick as his running mate as of the republican convention.... that makes no sense since he will pick before that. This question will be argued for days on end since some will say what if McCain changes his mind or the VP dies before then.
I’m thankful
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Inappropriate?Here is the question I was talking about. Tell me how many problems you see with it...
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_t...
I’m amused
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Inappropriate?The example question, above, can be gamed by other users -- which is a significant part of what "gaming" is all about.
There are clarification issues with lots of questions currently on Hubdub.
One huge solution is for users (like you ;-) to either flag the question (like the McCain market you mentioned) with your concern or questions about it, and/or put those concerns/questions in a comment for that market, and/or open a thread here in this forum.
As you may have noticed, HD staff have recently been wayyy more proactive in responding to flags and comments by suspending the market, pending clarification.
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Inappropriate?The problem is that a good 50% of questions should be flagged... it shouldn't be that way. That's the problem when the users make the questions.
I would rather HubDub make the question based on user suggestions.
Remember the purpose of HubDub is for news organizations to be able to come here for polling style data (once the beta is over). If there is gaming going on it won't work.
I’m sad
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Inappropriate?Scottay - I think a lot of the dubious questions will be cleared up with the power user vetting (coming in a month or two I think).
I’m ready for the future
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this is one of the best points
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Inappropriate?I would definitely not want all questions to have to start at 50/50. That would take the bizarre news off the site. I like the questions like "Will the gnome terrorizing Argentina be discovered?" and the like. But I wouldn't want it to have started at 50/50 odds.
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Inappropriate?Hubdub says the following:
What is Hubdub? Hubdub is all about letting you actively participate in the day’s news, following today’s events, predicting their outcomes and competing with other users to find out who the real news junkies are!
Hubdub is not here for news organizations to use as polling data. It is here for the users. The outcome of the questions should be settled by news sources, not what a majority of people on getsatisfaction say. Talk about being able to game a question. The problem Hubdub is experiencing these last few weeks, it that questions are being argued and not settled using common sense or what a news media is reporting. While we may disagree with a news story that still doesn't mean a news story isn't being reported a certain way.
It is ridiculous to think questions should be started at 50/50, ideally questions would be vetted and odds adjusted if not accurate. A person wishing to publish a question should do the necessary research to get the correct starting odds. I spend 20 minutes researching the odds of this weeks golf tournament so I could post two questions.
When a person creates a question they are given choices of other questions that are similar and they can then decide if it is repeatitive. As Hubdub moves forward with new improved procedures I am sure less and less gaming will be able to be done.
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this is one of the best points
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