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No more DJIA, the moron's approach to climbing the leaderboard
Just for !@#$ and giggles, how about Hubdub ban all business stock exchange market indexing questions, and thereby take out the top twenty money makers in a single blow? Any thoughts on this anybody? Wouldn't it be incredible if Hubdub was actually based on "news prediction markets" instead of answers to "will the DJIA finish between 12,500 and 12,600" 30 seconds before the close of trading? But I suppose it'd be a bit like taking away the bamboo from Pandas.
I’m happy about giving shit to everybody in the top ten
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Inappropriate?do people think lurking on a DJIA site for a tweak in a blue line constitutes intelligence? -
Inappropriate?Jimbo, it is news.
People have brought this up before and it has been shot done for the lack of a point in your argument; it is all rhetoric.1 Comment
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Yes, it is news. But isnt every question on Hubdub? What makes this topic more important/popular than others? -
Inappropriate?I have "played" both the stock market questions and now the NBA "in-play" questions. Both the stock market and NBA are worthy news items, but to have to sit by a computer for so long, etc. in order to "play" is something I have grown tired of. To make a prediction on the total points, etc. of a game or whether a given stock index is going to close up or down and by how much is okay, if it is done prior the event, and suspends before the event begins. Otherwise, imho it is just a form of gaming, which I thought Hubdub was against. That is what I thought initially, but it apparently isn't so any longer. I have placed all my H$ on predictions (basically MLB), and don't expect it to last very long. After it is gone, or very near so, I will no longer participate in Hubdub.
I’m sad
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This answers the question
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Hope you stick around Bob- Looks like a few of those big predictions paid off =)
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Inappropriate?In a way I agree with you jimbo and bob. I know that the market questions, which go up to final minutes are very popular and extremely lucritive. But this event occurs every day so does it really deserve to be in-market question every day?
Major sporting events which only happen once a year, or even longer I believe deserve to have the same right that the Market questions get every day. These events make bigger news than the Dow does. The Super Bowl, World Series, NBA FInals, Olympics, some soccer events, Indy 500, the 4 Major College Football Bowl Games, and many more happen only once a year- deserving some special attention. The Dow is an everyday thing and people who cant be home to play these in-market questions it makes it almost impossible to compete on the leaderboard.
Skipper said it is news, and I am aware that this discussion has been raised before, but there are events that are more special and make much bigger news because they only occur once a year or even longer. Dont events like these deserve extra attention from Hubdub?
I am all for fairness, and realize this is not an easy issue to resolve - But in the essence of fairness maybe some adjusting needs to be made. If something has definite start time, suspend then - Or, dont simply let one specfic everyday occurance be an in-market question, rather allow a few more into the mix. I know that we dont want to flood the questions as in-market because it is not "Predicting" - as the Hubdub homepage says "The News Prediction Game".
To be honest, it doesnt matter to me what decision is made. I like the site very much which is the only reason I am voicing my opinion. I want to see hubdub grow and improve, as I am sure most here in discussion do.
What do you guys think? -
Inappropriate?this has been discussed b4 and the status has not changed.overall people who have more time to sepnd on the site will do better than those who dont bcause they have time to buy, sell etc...as others have brought up it is like keeping a baseball game running till 2 outs in the ninth but the stox r the quickest and easiest way to make dollars and it always has been1 Comment Add a comment
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"but the stox r the quickest and easiest way to make dollars and it always has been"
Yes this is true, but is it fair?
Thats the point I am trying to make. Why are every day market questions in-game, betting up to last pitch- but others questions are not? -
Inappropriate?ontilt, why don't we have futures markets be (in real life): people say they want as many bushels of corn before trading, then during the day nothing happens, and then when reports of bad weather come out; their order cannot be changed?
The DOW can make huge changes mid-day, it can be going up say 50 points then start falling and end down 200!4 Comments Add a comment
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The Lakers can be up by 20 points in the 4th quarter, only to lose game. This was the case in Game 4 of NBA Finals.
Thats a huge change also, so whats your point? -
I'm saying there should be in running markets for sports and DJIA as there are currently.
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Yeah there needs to be some clarity at sometime in future. Not all sporting events are worthy of in game questions. Just like there shouldnt be in market questions about every indicie out there. I like and agree with the decision to at least limit the in-market questions pertaining to indicies. You noticed once that decision was made, no more questions were asked concerning those indicies that were no longer in-market questions. Goes to show why so many were being asked not too long ago (less users during time of market/smaller markets not many followed, etc.)
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The other markets were banned. It had nothing to do with being in-play or not. At the moment, the only index questions are about the Dow and Nasdaq.
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Inappropriate?I fought to get the in play markets for the NBA Finals. So after seeing them run, I can say I have formed some solid opinions. First and foremost, I think in play markets benefit those users who can dedicate the time to it. Is it fair for everyone absolutely not. I believe that the Dow questions should suspend at the opening of the market. I believe that sports questions should suspend at the beginning of them too. Until the Dow questions are changed, I think we should allow in play sports questions.
The essence of this issue is how much predicting and how much following of the news is required to be successful. With regards to the dow, it is no different than a baseball game, it has a beginning and ending, events occur during those two points which determine the outcome. A major report is released, causing market to move rapidly, in sports a player might get injured causing the outcome to be in doubt. What do we say to baseball fans that are penalized because they their wagers suspended at the beginning of the game, while we let the Dow players, go til the final pitch. There are those that say because we don't know what time the baseball game will end, we have to suspend it early. Well what we need to work on is a way to void all wagers made after the game is final. When we can void wagers which were even cashed out after that point, then we could allow those games to run til the end. Do I think this will make Hubdub better... absolutely not. I think it would make it fairer for most of the users. I believe if we want to make Hubdub better then we should treat all questions equally, and suspend all questions about a scheduled event before the event begins.
How do we deal with the major events in the world, we should follow the example of Vegas, allow "prop" bets, but suspend them before the game begins. If you want to wager on the over under in second half of football game you have to do it before it begins.2 Comments Add a comment
This answers the question
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Agree 100%- Especially the "I I believe if we want to make Hubdub better then we should treat all questions equally, and suspend all questions about a scheduled event before the event begins."
If an event has a definite start time, suspend then.
But, if you allow the market questions to be run in-game and everyday, then the once a year sporting events should at least be added as same kind of in-game question. -
I agree 100% too with Destry's comments - but if the DJIA markets exist, then I also think ontilt you have a good idea there too. The once a year sporting events, if played in-running, could be quite good fun - for example, I could see a lot of us having a bit of fun prediciting the outcome in-game of the marathon at this year's Olympics. The DJIA questions are possible five days a week - I guess it's a sort of ATM for some users - whenever you run low, just nip into the DJIA for a quick top up. This seems to be against the spirit of HD somehow, and I stick by the idea that the number of points on the DJIA at close is not really news.
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Inappropriate?I am not trying to be argumentative with anyone here, and I like and respect what I know about each person who has entered the discussion. I am just simply voicing an opinion. If disussions like this can make hubdub bigger and better, than hopefully we here more of them. Thats all I want, is to try and Hubdub even better because I really enjoy my time spent here.
Great site, great fun, great admins/superusers keeping things running smoothly.
I’m thankful
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Inappropriate?i believe the questions on indices should be either done away wiith completely or better still go back to allow them all i.e ftse.dax. and the old ones from asia that will make the whole thing a level playing field1 Comment Add a comment
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The "no ftse.dax, etc" rule is because Andrew, the category editor for business has left hubdub, and as they do not yet have a replacement, the other cat eds are filling in, and cannot dedicate the time that Andrew did.
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Inappropriate?At risk of pissing some people off (though I sincerely hope not) I offer out the following:
According to the rules:
"All user-created sports questions should suspend prior to start of the event."
This is common sense for individual games since there is a very high risk that at some point in the game a situation can develop that will make the outcome a near certainty. By suspending prior to the start of the game the integrity of the "prediction" spirit of the site is maintained. This gives no advantage to those who are glued to their computer or awake at 3 a.m. nor does it disadvantage those who are not. This is a good rule.
Conversely, the DJIA/Nasdaq in-running rule:
"No user-created in-running questions are allowed APART FROM on the DJIA and the NASDAQ."
serves the reverse, negative function of that above and appears wholly inconsistent with the just motivations that precipitated the implementation of the sports rule. This is likely further exacerbated by the fact that some users have real time access to index information whereas others do not.
By allowing in-running wagering on index questions users who are staked out at their computer, users with business real time access to the indices, and users who are awake at 3 a.m. (depending on where they live) are at profound advantage, to the detriment of those who do not meet that profile. Additionally, as the day progresses the wagering transitions from prediction to an almost (but not quite) sure bet on an almost certain outcome. Needless to say, this is not fair to a large number of users and, I believe, would meet with a strong majority disapproval if the facts were known and the question posed to the general body of Hubdub users.
That having been said, it strikes me the fair and obvious action should be to end in-running index questions and implement question suspension at the time of opening bell for the day.
I’m surprised this still stands.
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this answers the question
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This answers the question
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Yep.! Well put Markov. With regards real time access to the indices - perhaps some users have access to Bloomberg terminals? Those buggers are in a constant state of update, way beyond (if by only a minute or two) anything online.
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I had to read your post three times to make sure that I understood it correctly. I'm new to HubDub so I realize that my opinion probably doesn't carry much weight but:
If you go to a bookie and try to place a bet after an event has started the chances of them allowing it are almost null. I would think that some of that same reasoning would apply here. Also, if you are going to disallow this type of betting in one catagory then what makes it legal in another catagory? Seems to me that the rule is there to benefit a very small number of users that know how to manipulate the system and make it work for them. It seems that I read somewhere that the powers that be were attempting to stop just this type of action on the site yet they have rules in place the seem to benefit them selves? Since I know very little about the stock market playing this type of hedging would not seem to benefit me (or the routine user) at all - on the contrary it would seem to put us at a serious disadvantage to playing the game which in all likelyhood would encourage us to leave the board all togather.
Just my two cents worth. -
Inappropriate?Markov, in my opinion, comparing the indicies and sports games are like comparing apples and a knife.
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Inappropriate?Skipper:
I believe the analogy with respect to the context provided stands on its own merits. -
Inappropriate?i completely agree with you Markov all of the the questions should be at opening there was one on mlb where the closing time was still 2hrs when the closing time had been reached and if i had wanted to i could have filled my boots. as i understand IT i thought the super users job was to see this did not happen, it is all easily seen to by having the closing time of all of the indices and sports finish say an hour before opening and that applies to all sports as well i can remember a member say know i will have to look for another cash cow or words to that effect
i love the site it would be a pity if it broke down through stupid arguments
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Inappropriate?WELL dont hold ur breath expecting a change..while it might make sense there always seems to b people who argue the opposite like if its up 200 points with 5 minutes left it could still fall and id lose..and that type of argument has allowed it to stand up so far
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Inappropriate?no crusy you are wrong i always play it fair i am in australia of course you are one that does not want it to change as u are a leader and one of the cash cows it makes sense to have it hours before which will take out the gaming as per the rules
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Inappropriate?what ru talking about..it should close hours b4 like everything else..i only stated that the arguments given that are part of the reason it is still here plus i play very little stox..i always said it should close early like everything else..of course people who r able to stay on and bet stox all day have an advantage..even if u make a little per day it is a sure thing at some point on most days.but these r and always have been the rules and as long as nobody is cheating there is nothing anybody can do..its not the players fault
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Inappropriate?I've been getting more of these lately... "Oops, sorry. You've found a bug!". Plus I had two stakes on the Stanford NCAA Baseball game I do believe, and only received credit for one. Oh well, it doesn't matter.
I'm down to about $H37,000 so my departure from Hubdub is getting closer. I don't expect Hubdub admin to change things for just me. (e.g. Suspend stock and sports, etc. questions before the event(s), begin.), but I have chosen to not participate in it. As I've mentioned above, to me this is not true news prediction(s), but "gaming" and "gambling".
I am not arguing, but only stating my view. Hubdub's admin has the right to operate their web site the way they want to, and though I don't agree with the stock and sports issues I have mentioned, I am very impressed with Hubdub, and wish them well. As with any web site, the owners, admin, etc. can't please everyone. After leaving, perhaps I'll return in several months or so to see how things are then.
Take care y'all. Mostly, I have had a ton of fun at Hubdub.
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yes bob i have lost two on the bundersberg league i find the fun site yery entertaining
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Inappropriate?It would appear nobody is cheating on the indexes as the rules clearly allow for in-running wagering in this category. However, I personally believe the current rule to be severely flawed and am hopeful it will be corrected soon. Until then, users wagering on the indices have every right to continue wagering as they see fit, if only to avoid falling behind others who take advantage of this highly questionable rule. Whatever damage has been done is water under the bridge. I respectfully challenge the Hubdub admins to take action as soon as possible to clear this thing up. It strikes me the best arguments for both positions have already been made and this contentious issue is ripe for a ruling. Fairness to all and consistency relative to other rules should be paramount to the final decision. Let's just take a good, objective look at the facts and arguments and put this thing to bed.
I’m wondering why this is taking so long.
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Inappropriate?I think it would be interesting to have an admin weigh in on this topic. With 10 of them supposedly getting updates on this, seems like this issue merits some official positioning.1 Comment Add a comment
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I'm in complete agreement.
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Inappropriate?To date our decision on whether to allow in-running questions has depended on two things (1) liquidity of the market and (2) availability of admin staff to monitor them. We closed down the non-US indice questions primarily for the second reason however it was clear they weren't nearly as liquid as the US indices.
Liquidity matters as if the market is liquid it is difficult to make quick risk-free profits. We are constantly monitoring this but at the moment there is no plans to cease indice questions. In fact we are trialling in-running sports questions. In my view both of these are very exciting.
The primary problem here is how people are rewarded for different activity (i.e. a long term prediction versus trading the Dow). Both are challenging but it does feel that the current system overly rewards short term trading. We don't want to penalise that but it would be good to have a system that recognises both more equally. Any thoughts on that?
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this answers the question
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Inappropriate?sorry nigel you are playing into the hands as to your part2 why only us indices trading they there selfs are wrongly put if you want to know y ask me but not on here .....ok
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Curious, it is because they do not have Cat Eds to stay up and:
A) suspend the markets
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B) Settle the markets in a timely manner
Plus the liquidity aspect. -
Inappropriate?trading the dow can still b a short term prediction but it would b a prediction b4 the likely result is known and everyone would have an equal opportunity to make money on it..as it stand now most u.s. people work during the stock hours and are not able to access the dow constantly through the day and incur full losses while people who have access can take less of a loss by cashing out..that adds up..many sports are in the evening especially the big games and therefore more people have access to them equally..betting on the dow when it is up 200 points doesnt seem very challenging and even if u lose one of those once in a while overall u will come out way ahead..i dont really bet the dow but this is how i c it
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Inappropriate?Nigel,
There is no way to remove the unfair advantage from in-running questions on indices or sports when it gets down to the last day. It's a totally different dynamic with requirements beyond the capability (sports and indices) and access (for the indices) of most users. The only solutions are to either put an end to it or have a separate Hubdub for it that does not registers earning towards the primary Hubdub site.
The excitement of in-running wagering can be maintained to some degree by continuing to allow questions with suspend dates like these two examples:
1) Week (or month or whatever) long index questions that suspend 24 hours before settlement date.
2) Week (or month or whatever) long sports questions that suspend 24 hours before settlement date.
This will allow for wagering on fluctuations yet substantially reduce sure bets placed by those with privileged access via real time business access and/or too much time on their hands. Additionally, it will add credibility to the top of the leaderboard and reduce the number of people who feel they are getting screwed. If I had real time index access and/or felt like hanging out at my computer every day between 3:30 and 4:00 I could jack up my numbers pretty quickly at the expense of people who are working or sleeping and grab the hollow mantle of victory. However, this does not strike me as fair to others, indicative of my prediction prowess, or fun.
If there was a site exclusively dedicated to such "day trading" it might be interesting to have a go at it once in awhile, but co-mingling this with the vast majority of other question scenarios on Hubdub seems to be like mixing oil and water. IMHO single event in-running questions simply do not belong in this venue.
I’m wondering why we cling so tightly to this obviously unfair practice.
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This answers the question
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Markov, I don't mean to sound rude but, guess what, in the real world everything isn't fair! There is day trading in stock markets, fair? No. People close to sport teams bet on games, fair? No. but guess what, that's the real world, those who work harder/have more access can win. Can you handle that?
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Skipper - Needless to say everyone except children knows the world isn't fair. I often have to remind my kids of this. However, the common theme to this particular forum site has been how to make Hubdub better and if you've been reading the posts for very long you would be aware that fairness has been a critical component of that effort. Perhaps my major failing in this thread has been my initial assumption that all of the participants' comments have been driven by the common goal of bettering Hubdub. My mistake. If we can't even agree that an even playing field will best serve the Hubdub community then you reading my comments is about as worthless as me reading your responses to them. How unfortunate. I guess I'm just going to have to ponder this awhile to see if I can handle it.
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Inappropriate?This is a delicate issue which is not easily solved to please everyone. I hope people who are upset/thinking of leaving Hubdub realize Hubdub is in its infancy stages and changes will be made as time goes on.
Like Nigel said, some sporting events are in a trial phase of in-market to see how they go. Maybe there will be more sports events added to in-play questions, or maybe it will be done away with all together in future.
All indicies were allowed as in-market at one time, now its down to a couple. The # of indicies allowed as in-market may increase again as curios stated you want in reply #9, or all events with a certain begin time may suspend at that time in future.
All these discussions are part of fine tuning process of Hubdub. I am not a hubdub rep, superuser or anyone special- Just someone who knows like anything in life, you learn by trial and error. Hubdub will try some things, make mistakes, but in the long run will learn and grow from it all and be better and get better as time goes on.1 Comment Add a comment
This answers the question
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My sentiments exactly.
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Inappropriate?hey u blokes i live in Australia, i get no chance only to guess on indices in the USA i remember (quote epicur saying i will have to find another cash cow unquote) i registered early but did not start using hubdud for three months being a sports person i have a go at those, i love the site and enjoy , but what really gets up my nose are those who do not make predictions open., just look up your leaders then you will understand what i refer to (perhaps), and how many of you work i wonder
let all indices be included as before as some one said you can always cash in surely this site is for ever one it is based in the UK and not the domain of only Americans lets have a level playing field.
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Inappropriate?well the simple solution is to make this a true prediction site..predictions must be made b4 there is any possible final answer..while some in game sports and stuff may be fun it may turn out to b more fun if everybody knows there is an equal chance for everyone at all times and if they really are good at predicting events they will have a chance to move up even if they cant stay on their computers all day
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Inappropriate?Trying to open a separate topic on this subject...I've changed my closing times to only 15 minutes before closing rather than 5, and on a day like today, a lot of people got caught on the wrong side . . .
I'm very open to suggestions, but I do like having it open during the day, since that allows people to react to announcements made along the way.
Maybe there should be questions that suspend before opening, like Kruijs % related questions as well as my point level questions....perhaps the close up or down questions should also end earlier...
Good points all...I'm just looking for ways to get and keep a lot of people involved!
I’m confident
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Inappropriate?well bayou bear u r wrong until you have all indices and all open prediction u r pushing up hill as to the 84% Americans as being in the majority where is the fairness to the other 16% i suppose we don't count?
as to indices since Andrew left he was write on the ball i have to wait any thing up to 36 hrs for action on flagged or longer like i say we don't count i want to see hubdub succed but it will not when the issue is really here's a good site lets take it over if you people want some one to do your indies
I’m frustrated
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Inappropriate?@ Curios
My first day on the 'job' and I hope to be able to settle markets more quickly. Everyone can help by sending info to help settle markets, although I should be able to handle the standard markets (DJIA, Nasdaq, etc,) pretty easily.
Although Americans do make up the vast majority of Hubdubbers, I've love to see more participation worldwide . . . I would like to see us add the FTSE and DAX markets back to the system and also one or two of the markets (Shanghai , Nikkei, etc.) in your section of the globe. Not only are these markets important to a large segment of the global trading population, adding them back would also allow for round-the-clock play for Hubdub members.
Thanks for any positives and I'll work on fixing the negatives
I’m confident
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Inappropriate?I like what Markov said: "co-mingling this [day-trading] with the vast majority of other question scenarios on Hubdub seems to be like mixing oil and water" and "...have a separate Hubdub for it that does not registers earning towards the primary Hubdub site."
I think "separation" is the only way to please both factions: the ordinary, lightly involved majority, and the heavily involved in-game day-traders. However, there should not be a separate Hubdub site, but only a separate assets "counter" for day-trading winnings, and a separate leaderboard for winnings on one-day stock market predictions.
This separate leaderboard could also accommodate in-game betting on sporting events, which I suspect would be very popular.
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